by Ian Khan | Feb 10, 2021 | Ian Khan Blog, Ian Khan's Blog, Podcast
Donna Dupont, Chief Strategist, Foresight & Design at Purple Compass with Ian Khan Futurist.
In this episode i speak with Donna Dupont, a co-contributor to the recent book “After Shock”.
Bio
As the Founder and Chief Strategist in Foresight & Design for Purple Compass, Donna Dupont brings skills and insights developed over 20 years working with leaders in healthcare, emergency management, government public policy, strategic planning and program design. She has facilitated a range of foresight and design activities for clients in healthcare, emergency management and military.
Donna’s interests are at the intersection between climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction and sustainable development. Her aim is to collaborate with communities and organizations, and use strategic foresight and design methods to empower and strengthen local capacity, health services, public safety and security.
Prior to Purple Compass, Donna held a variety of senior roles within Ontario’s Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care in both healthcare and emergency management. She also worked on the front-lines as a Registered Respiratory Therapist during the SARS crisis. Donna is a recipient of seven government awards at the provincial and federal level for outstanding achievement, excellence and partner relations in policy and strategic planning.
Donna is a Master of Design candidate in Strategic Foresight & Innovation (2020) at OCAD University, has a BHA in Health Services Management from Ryerson University, and completed continuing education with Harvard Humanitarian Academy, United Nations Institute for Training and Research and the Stockholm Resilience Centre. She is a member of the Association of Professional Futurists (APF), International Association of Emergency Managers (IAEM), and the Canadian Risks & Hazards Network (CRHNet).
About After Shock
The world’s foremost futurists reflect on 50 years of Future Shock—and look ahead to the next 50
Contributors include:
Alan Kay
Aaron Frank
Adrienne Mayor
Alexander Mankowsky
Alexandra Ivanovitch
Alisha Bhagat
Amy Zalman
Anders Sorman-Nilsson
Andra Keay
Andrew Curry
Andy Hines
Anita Sengupta
Anne Lise Kjaer
Aris Persidis
Aubrey de Grey
Barry O’Reilly
Barry Vacker
Bill Davidow
Bill Diamond
Bryan Alexander
Byron Reese
Carlos Osorio
Carver Mead
Cat Tully
Cindy Frewen
Clem Bezold
Daniel Burrus
Daniel Levine
David Brin
David Guston
David Krakauer
David J. Staley
David Weinberger
Deb Westphal
Diane M. Francis
Donna Dupont
Eleanor “Nell” Watson
Eric Daimler
Erica Bol
Erik Qualman
Fotis Sotiropoulos
George Gilder
Grady Booch
Gray Scott
Hannes Sjoblad
Harish Natarajan
Hazel Henderson
Helen Messier
Ian Khan
Ignacio Pena
Jack Uldrich
James Canton
Jane McGonigal
Jason Jackson
Jason Schenker
Jay Gambetta
Jeff Eisenach
Jeffrey C. Bauer
Jerome Glenn
Jerry Fishenden
Joe Dispenza
Joe Tankersley
Joel Garreau
John L. Petersen
John M. Smart
John Sack
John Sanei
John Schroeter
Jonathan Venn
José Morey
Kaitlyn Sadtler
Kirk Borne
Klee Irwin
Kris Østergaard
Lisa Bodell
Maciej Kranz
Martin Guigui
Martin Rees
Maggie Greyson
Michael Tomczyk
Michel Laberge
Mick Ebeling
Moon Ribas
Naveen Jain
Neil Jacobstein
Newt Gingrich
Patricia Lustig & Gill Ringland
Paul Saffo
Paul Stimers
Po Bronson & Arvind Gupta
Ray Kurzweil
Rebecca Costa
Richard Browning
Richard Slaughter
Richard Watson
Richard Yonck
Rodrigo Nieto Gómez
Rohit Bhargava
Ross Dawson
Ruth Miller
Sanjiv Chopra & Pankaj K Vij
Sohail Inayatullah
Sridhar Mahadevan
Stan Rosen
Stephanie Mehta
Steve Waite
Tanya Accone
Terrence (Terry) Sejnowski
Teun Koetsier
Theodore Jay Gordon
Thomas Frey
Timothy Chou
Vikram Mansharamani
Wolfgang Fengler
Zoltan Istvan
Publication Details
ISBN Print: 978-0-9997364-4-9
ISBN eBook: 978-0-9997364-5-6
Full Transcript : Hi friends this is Ian Khan and you’re listening to the Ian Khan show. And this is an aftershock special episode. In today’s episode I’m speaking with Donna DuPont, who’s the founder and chief strategist and foresight in design for purple compass. with a focus on disaster risk management and sustainable development. Donna is in the final stage of completing her master of design and strategic foresight and innovation at OCAD University and she lives in Toronto over to Donna. Donna. Welcome to the Ian Khan show. It is such a pleasure to have you now first of all, you and I are book contributors to this amazing book that came out some time ago aftershock, which was written 50 years now I want our listeners to understand 50 to five zero half a century ago gentleman named Alvin Toffler wrote a book called Future Shock in which he wrote about the future tomorrow the changes that will happen, and in aftershock we wrote about you and I and 50 other contributors wrote about our thoughts and ideas of Future Shock in the world we are living in.
So welcome to the show, and the special series featuring aftershock contributors. How are you today? Well, thank you for the invitation. And I’m doing well. I mean, considering the time that we’re living in right now and all of the change and the turbulence, I’m finding a way to, to manage day to day. Yeah, and I think a lot of people are trying to also figure out the new normal going forward. Now let’s talk about the new normal, you are a practicing futurist you. This is your work, you live futurism for a living, help us understand, is this something that is part of this incredible change that was supposed to happen that Oscar wrote about? Is this one of those things? You need? Specifically the pandemic? Yes, yes. Well, I mean, infectious disease type emergencies isn’t new. They’ve been around, we’ve had them before, but they are really complex type of emergencies. And so what we’ve learned from this particular experience is that a lot of our assumptions or perspectives, perceptions of what we thought would happen, are totally being challenged right now, in so many ways. And what we are seeing is a lot of the social and economic cascading consequences of this particular health emergency. And so I think for a lot of people, you know, and myself included working in the emergency management space, we’ve done scenarios, we’ve done pandemic planning, this is really challenging for our assumptions as well in so many different ways. And I think it is an incredible learning opportunity to to understand the broader system and the vulnerabilities that exist right now and to have conversations about the future, I believe. So know, one of the things that and I’ve spoken with so many incredible people who contributed to this book, one of the reasons being soil. So the other night de la, who’s based out of Australia, amazing futurist, and tons of other people. Now, everyone I’ve spoken to, from a futurism angle, is saying, Hey, you know, it was supposed to happen one way or the other, if it’s not, the pandemic, it’s going to be an asteroid, if it’s not an asteroid, it’s going to be a tsunami, it’s one thing or the other, that’ll keep on happening, because change is not changes constantly. The world has a very dynamic nature. And as we keep an eye in people in the world, we are we’re battling with just one specific event. There’s many other things happening in the world, which are great, which are good that probably Toffler wrote about in his books, as well. Tell me a little bit about Toffler and his work. Have you read his work intensively? Are you inspired by his work? Tell me about your experience? Well, I am inspired by taufers work, and I’m inspired from just the perspective of adaptation, and that changing environment and how, as a society, we need to adapt and evolve. And I think that’s an important concept that is not necessarily recognized a lot today, I think a lot of organizations, people really have a very, potentially a very static type of view of the system or the broader environment. And so don’t really think about it as constantly emerging or changing and don’t necessarily pick up on those signals in the system on whether or not those signals might be relevant to their personal lives or to their professional lives. And so I think that this I love the notion of this constant adaptation, and that we need to be mindful, we need to be aware and we need to be prepared to adapt and pivot. And I think that’s what we’re exactly seeing right now with COVID-19. We’re seeing a lot of different organizations and also people they’re everyone’s lives are shifting and based on this particular crisis, and so we are having to change our havior is the way we do business. And for a lot of organizations from a business perspective, they’re pivoting their business models, there’s a lot of uncertainty and they may need to redefine going into the future. So they will need a stronger, different vision post COVID. Amazing. I actually want to read something from your essay in the book that I think aligns with this, you say, and I’m quoting, as is true for many organizations, the emergency disaster management community has a tendency to think and behave in short term cycles moving from crisis to crisis stuck in the cycle of disaster response recovery loop, the knowledge gained from emergency events is not fully mobilized into long term planning, in anticipation of emerging and future risk. And this is what I want to ask you about, how do we get ready for future risk? How do we plan for future risk? It’s a good question, I think the first place to start is our perception of risk, and to really take a look and have those conversations about what is our perspective, our assumptions, our internal biases, and to take a more systems lens of looking at risk. And I see this kind of playing out right now with the pandemic. And you’ll see right now your different countries have different assessments of risk around the pandemic. And based on that risk, they’re making decisions around public health protection measures. And that’s an important assessment, right, because you’re going to see differences across the board. And some of those decisions might be influenced from economic lens, a political lens, there might be other issues at play that we’re not aware of. So I think the whole discussion around future risk needs to be to start with our perception, what we what we what are our biases, perspectives of risk, and then and have a conversation about what’s emerging. Right. And that requires new skill sets, new ways of engaging with risk. So not just looking at risk from a modeling perspective of predictive analytics, and just very limited variables, but to really recognize the complexity of systems and where the modeling the predictive models end is an opportunity to pick up with foresight methodology, to have more of that holistic view of what’s emerging around risk, and also identifying those areas of uncertainty. Because that can be a very problematic space for a lot of organizations, understanding how to work with uncertainty how to generate agency for change a lot of people if they’re uncertain than they just don’t go there or have that conversation. But I think it’s important to be open to having those those conversations. Now, does this have anything to do with how we’re able to use emerging technology to maybe accelerate this learning process, because I really believe the art and the skill of predictive modeling, predictive analytics, futurism foresight, it’s a very specific and narrow field practice by very few people, of people like yourself, experts, and they know what they’re doing. One of the challenges in the common world is that people are unable to see the future. they’re unable to just imagine 10 years from now or five years now, because people are so busy in their everyday lives, their job, their mortgage, their car payments. I mean, get this knowledge across to the common people. So they can say, Hey, COVID-19, here are the lessons that we can learn from it. And maybe now think in broader terms, what should we do? And technology being wonderful? Is technology a part of this? Yeah, well, technology also provides opportunities. So So I think it’s important to leverage technology. But I also think it’s important to understand the limitations of technology, right, and to recognize that and to be able to, to add to that in terms of a more inclusive approach to futures and engaging a larger audience. And that could be whole of society, which we’re seeing engaged right now in COVID-19. I think there needs to be a new way of having this conversation, perhaps perhaps making it less mysterious around futures and more about a dynamic conversation. Perhaps technology can be that tool to reach, you know, people within a network certainly is something that can be scaled, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be done in a digital environment. I think sometimes great conversations can happen in person, obviously limited right now. So I think there is a need to rethink how we democratize foresight and and make it relatable to make it accessible to the average person and somehow people can participate in conversations in different ways, other than perhaps a formal workshops are other methods that have been used. Yeah. And I you know what one of the things that we’ve seen to 2020 during this COVID crises that has been unleashed on humanity is how fast some things have progressed, have ideas of digital transformation, people using zoom and one of these platforms to communicate. And pre 2020 it was a nightmare talking to people about giving the example about the accounting industry, tons of my clients were getting got in the accounting industry, it’s really hard to move, get them to move from one place to the other, because that’s the nature of the business. But now things are moving. So the challenge has also brought upon acceleration of change rate. And that is so interesting, huh? Definitely, I think, especially the use of technology, this pandemic has certainly created a situation where people are forced to change. And so it’s definitely opened up a lot of new opportunities. I think many organizations and people have really tried to reimagine, you know, how they can conduct their day to day activities or the businesses on in a virtual way. So I think that’s, that’s wonderful to see him as well. You’ve asked some really critical questions and some really nice questions in your article. So you talk about accelerations and the pace of change that, hey, the increasing pace of environment change is more visible. But having said that, you’ve talked about I can’t help but ask and you’ve asked a few questions. Why does Why does our society lack the collective will to take out? Why are we not acting with urgency proportional to the scale of the threat? And we’re living that right now? How can we wake up from this sleep walk nightmare? Could we be suffering from normalcy bias, thinking that if you stay the course everything will go back to normal? No, my question to you is, have you found the answers to any of these questions? Well, I’m certainly seeking the answers. So. But I do know that many people and I’ve seen a number of articles talk about that there is no going back to normal. And so I think this normalcy bias is being challenged in a number of ways with COVID-19. And I think that’s quite fascinating. And certainly I’m connecting in with a lot of my colleagues, both in the futures space, but also in emergency management space to understand what their perspective is around all of this and get their insights on what’s transpiring. But with that need for the future for the profession as well. Yeah, absolutely. I also believe that many people are saying this is the new normal, the era that COVID-19 has created is the new normal, I have a problem with that. Because I don’t believe I think we’re in a transitionary phase, we are always in a phase of transition. And I think there’s somewhere else we need to go because we can be a normal, in a state of crises, I refuse to accept it. Because people are amazing, we do incredible work, we’ve surpassed all our challenges in the past. So there’s got to be something better ahead in our life. And we should strive for achieving that or getting there. So I think the new normal is up ahead. It’s in the future. And I think it’s, it’s about convincing people to see beyond the crises and saying, hey, everything’s gonna be alright, just work on your game, start thinking about what you want to do, act on it, and then move forward. That’s kind of my thought. I don’t know if you agree or not. You know, I agree with that. I think you’re quite right in that because I also see this as this is a turbulent time. And so there’s just so much activity happening, I think most people are just trying to keep pace. But this discussions have shifted in the last little while around recovery. And and so this is an interesting time, because this is the recovery phase of trying to find a way back. And I don’t think it will be, you know, back to the way it was, I think this is the the adjustment of the path towards that new normal. And I think along this path, this is the recovery side of the work we do in emergency management. This is where we’re really doing a lot of reflecting work, and we’re doing a lot of lessons learned. And so that’s an opportunity as well to help shape about that future trajectory. And the profession in emergency management is very much focused on a vision of resiliency, and sustainability. And so I think my question is, while we’re recovering, what’s that bigger vision? What does that resilient vision look like, given what we’ve learned with COVID-19? And this whole of society type of approach that was needed to really respond to the pandemic? And what are those relationships going to look like with communities with businesses going forward? And so I think it’s an interesting time and I agree, we are just starting to perhaps head down that path and around what that future could be. If you can share, maybe help us understand what our business community’s thinking right now maybe help us understand you know, some conversations that you’re having with your clients? And how are you helping them understand, you know, here’s how you unpack today’s era and how you get out of it. I just want our audiences to learn from you, how do you do it as a futurist, and then maybe start thinking in that direction? I think a lot of the conversations I’ve been having with my clients have been around how to navigate this, obviously, they’re thinking about it from a short term recovery. So more near term foresight, and just how to pivot how to adapt. So it’s a little bit of a combination of just not not just foresight, but a bit of adaptation, and a bit of pivoting business models. So it’s been that kind of learning. But in terms of the longer view post COVID. I think that where a lot of our conversations have been going is around, what could the environment that future operational environment look like? What are the issues that we’re seeing emerge? And how is that going to impact the business in those environment? And will those businesses be sustainable? Will they be relevant and given what’s happening in the broader system shifts? And so I’m thinking and specifically around shoes of we’re seeing cyber issues, right, I have some clients that deal a lot in the information, space, and cyberspace. And so with all of these new types of behaviors happening in that space, what does that mean, for a lot of organizations, the way they do their business, if they have to maintain a business online, virtually what different new types of capabilities or processes need to be in place, what new functions and maybe new resources. So that’s just one example. But I think that a lot of organizations are really trying to understand in the near term around how to pivot their business model. So this is where I think scenarios can be helpful. And I tend to work with critical uncertainties in the near term, and just to create to really work on those areas where there’s the most impact to the business, and then to facilitate and have those conversations to get at the some deeper insights that could help pivot their business model. They may not have a full vision of where they would like to take it. But at least they have a sense with some of the dimensions of uncertainty where they may need to navigate. Absolutely, yeah. And it in a very similar rhetoric needs from clients is know where do we go next? What do we do next? I really believe everybody needs to become a futurist have a sword. I mean, business leaders especially have to be able to anticipate change. They’ve got to be able to anticipate what happens in business and how to react to it. It’s a part of what they’ve signed up for. So no, readily said, Donna, thank you so much for joining us again. I want to point out to viewers, that aftershock is available on Amazon, I believe it’s available now it was on pre orders now and you myself 50 Plus, other amazing people have contributed to this book. I really believe this is a read of a lifetime. If you read and have a copy of Aftershock, you really will understand many different things. I’ve interviewed people who are medical doctors, to scientists to people who are the head of SETI yourself. There’s incredible people in this series, quite a bit aftershock. So I really am suggesting to everybody buy a copy of Aftershock. And if you don’t have the money to buy it, tell me send me a message. And I will send you a copy of Aftershock. I have a few extra copies lying around. I don’t I know, we don’t have a lot of time with you. But help us finally tell us maybe give us three things give us or three or four or two things that we should do right away, to change our tomorrow to change our future to make it better to get into this tomorrow where we perhaps control things or have a better outcome than what we have today. If that makes sense? Well, I think the first place to start is just awareness, you know, starting with oneself and personal awareness of the environment, what’s shifting around you and and how that’s having an impact on your day to day life. I think then the second part would be the next layer in terms of your work, right and awareness around the impacts of shifting environment in your work, and then really being open to different ways of exploring the future. So what I mean is that really pay attention to what’s shifting, you know, in the environment and think about what does that change in the system mean for me on a personal level, or what could it mean for the work I do and I think just having that first stage of awareness It would be a really big step. And then from there, perhaps then it will lead to other questions around what is possible. What could happen down the road, even if it’s, you know, six months down the road, what if, and, and having those types of conversations, to start to, to start to think differently about the future and to be open to the need to pivot, and to shift and to not be afraid of change? I think that’s would be a great starting point. Thanks so much. That makes perfect sense. Where can we find more about you? Where can people go and contact you or check out your website or see the incredible work that you do? Oh, thank you. So for more information on the work that myself or my team does, you can go to our website, purple compass, at www dot purple compass.ca. And we have a list of different projects collaborations, as well as services. We recently launched the emergency management futures lab this year. So there’s a lot of new exciting initiatives that were part of and so we would love to hear from you. And if you have any questions, please feel free to reach out. Incredible Donna, thank you so much. I wish you your team and incredible and safe time ahead of purple compass.ca is where you are at your team is at so I’m openly telling anybody who need help in futures and helping understand tomorrow you’re in Toronto, especially contact Donna and team and see where that goes. Right. And thank you so much for being part of this conversation. Let’s chat soon and thank you very much. Thank you so much. Take care Thank you. Hey, friend, this is Ian Khan. If you like what you saw on my video, then please subscribe to my YouTube channel and be inspired every single day with innovative content that keeps you fresh, updated and ready for the future. For more information. Also visit my website at Ian khan.com
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by Ian Khan | Feb 10, 2021 | Ian Khan Blog, Ian Khan's Blog, Podcast
Daniele Levine, Top Innovation Trends Speaker in conversation with Futurist Ian Khan
In this episode i speak with globally recognized Futurist Daniel Levine, also a co-contributor to the recent book “After Shock”.
Bio
Daniel Levine is a trusted consultant to major companies and brands worldwide. He is regularly featured in newspapers and magazines and is often on television and radio including CNN, NBC and others.
Mr. Levine is the director of the Avant-Guide Institute and the global editor of the popular trends website WikiTrend.org where he leads a large international team of trend spotters; over 9000 researchers who chronicle the latest ideas, products and experiences from around the globe.
-Founding Director of the Avant- Guide Institute trends consultancy
-Bestselling Author of 11 books on trends, business, travel and marketing
-Keynote Speaker with over 266 presentations in 37+ Industries
-Corporate Consultant for American Express, Intel, HBO, NBC, BMW & many more
-Global Leader of WikiTrend.org for business professionals
Learn more about Daniel at https://daniellevine.com/
About After Shock
The world’s foremost futurists reflect on 50 years of Future Shock—and look ahead to the next 50
Contributors include:
Alan Kay
Aaron Frank
Adrienne Mayor
Alexander Mankowsky
Alexandra Ivanovitch
Alisha Bhagat
Amy Zalman
Anders Sorman-Nilsson
Andra Keay
Andrew Curry
Andy Hines
Anita Sengupta
Anne Lise Kjaer
Aris Persidis
Aubrey de Grey
Barry O’Reilly
Barry Vacker
Bill Davidow
Bill Diamond
Bryan Alexander
Byron Reese
Carlos Osorio
Carver Mead
Cat Tully
Cindy Frewen
Clem Bezold
Daniel Burrus
Daniel Levine
David Brin
David Guston
David Krakauer
David J. Staley
David Weinberger
Deb Westphal
Diane M. Francis
Donna Dupont
Eleanor “Nell” Watson
Eric Daimler
Erica Bol
Erik Qualman
Fotis Sotiropoulos
George Gilder
Grady Booch
Gray Scott
Hannes Sjoblad
Harish Natarajan
Hazel Henderson
Helen Messier
Ian Khan
Ignacio Pena
Jack Uldrich
James Canton
Jane McGonigal
Jason Jackson
Jason Schenker
Jay Gambetta
Jeff Eisenach
Jeffrey C. Bauer
Jerome Glenn
Jerry Fishenden
Joe Dispenza
Joe Tankersley
Joel Garreau
John L. Petersen
John M. Smart
John Sack
John Sanei
John Schroeter
Jonathan Venn
José Morey
Kaitlyn Sadtler
Kirk Borne
Klee Irwin
Kris Østergaard
Lisa Bodell
Maciej Kranz
Martin Guigui
Martin Rees
Maggie Greyson
Michael Tomczyk
Michel Laberge
Mick Ebeling
Moon Ribas
Naveen Jain
Neil Jacobstein
Newt Gingrich
Patricia Lustig & Gill Ringland
Paul Saffo
Paul Stimers
Po Bronson & Arvind Gupta
Ray Kurzweil
Rebecca Costa
Richard Browning
Richard Slaughter
Richard Watson
Richard Yonck
Rodrigo Nieto Gómez
Rohit Bhargava
Ross Dawson
Ruth Miller
Sanjiv Chopra & Pankaj K Vij
Sohail Inayatullah
Sridhar Mahadevan
Stan Rosen
Stephanie Mehta
Steve Waite
Tanya Accone
Terrence (Terry) Sejnowski
Teun Koetsier
Theodore Jay Gordon
Thomas Frey
Timothy Chou
Vikram Mansharamani
Wolfgang Fengler
Zoltan Istvan
Full Transcript : Hi friends and welcome to the Ian Khan show. You’re listening to a special episode of The aftershock series, which where I interview co contributors to the recent book aftershock. My guest today is Daniel Levine, who’s one of the world’s best known trans experts. He’s named the ultimate guru of cool by CNN, and he’s a frequent guest on TV and radio. He’s the director of avant garde Institute, based out of New York helps people understand the future. Let’s speak with Daniel. Hi, Daniel. Welcome to the Ian Khan Show. Hey, I’m so excited to be speaking with you. Because you are quite the man you are the person who is the go to person for trends. And you’ve been doing this for many, many years. You and I are both part of Aftershock. This is something our good friend Joshua put together. And we’ll talk about that and many other things in the few minutes.
Welcome to the show. Yeah, thank you. It’s a pleasure to be here. And I wish we were here in person, but I guess that’s gonna have to wait a little bit. So COVID has changed the world? I don’t know. And I don’t think Toffler wrote about that, among many things that he did, but it’s really I mean, I’ve been speaking with so many different people. Nobody was expecting it. Yes, everybody knows there are many viruses and they are sitting in some labs, but nobody was expecting this kind of change to happen to an everyday world. What are your thoughts off this 2020 being the year off? COVID-19? You know, there’s really only one story this year, right? It’s the main thing that’s affecting so many people’s lives. And it’s where it’s gonna go. I think, you know, a lot of the people who you’re interviewing on your podcast, have a lot of ideas about that. And I’m sure we’ll get into some of those things today, where I think I’m probably different from many of the people that you speak with is I don’t consider myself a futurist. I consider myself a trends expert. And by that, I mean, I don’t look at sort of pie in the sky prognostications about what might be happening 50 years from now, I’m really looking at the next, you know, three to five years and even closer than that, based on things that we’re actually going through right now. So my specialty, along with the avant garde Institute is looking at changes that are happening in culture as we are living them. And then extrapolating what that may look like. And I think that’s important, because it’s really difficult for most people to see where they are when they’re in the middle of it. You know, so many people right now are freaking out about, about the future, the near future, because it’s hard to see what the next few months are gonna look like, when you’re so deeply impacted by what’s going on right now. You agree? Yep. Yeah, absolutely. And bang on you’re you’re right. And I’ll tell you what other people have been talking about. So among all the contributors of Aftershock, I probably have had so far, maybe 80% of all the contributors who I’ve spoken with 80% of them, until now. And these people, some of them are doctors, some of their MD, some of them are specialists, some of them the head of SETI search for extraterrestrial, and doesn’t like people like that. And everybody has a different perspective on especially COVID-19, that we’re all in it together. First of all, nobody was expecting it to happen. Number two, the disruption on common life and all the things that we find are right around us and we have access to them. Seven, you cannot do it. So it’s been a shock for everybody. That’s been a bit of a shock for everybody that you can’t just go out anymore, you can go out and you can go for a meeting. And so that disruption of life, something that Toffler talks in a different way that, hey, the pace of change will be rapid. But it’s more like a direction change rather than an amplification of that what I think is really interesting about one of the things that’s very interesting, about tumblers book was his main thesis was that we’re going through this malaise that we’re going to have because the world is moving so quickly, and you know, we can’t catch up. We weren’t built physically to catch up to how quickly the world is moving right now. But what sort of strikes me and I think sort of taps a hopeful note for us is that the world seems to be moving so much faster now than even Toffler expected. And yet, humans have sort of proven to be adaptable. And we have caught up in many ways. You know, that Malays is I don’t really see that as being a major part of our culture, especially when you look at younger people who, you know, people who who grew up in the were born in the internet era that’s just normal and natural to them and people who who are sort of born into eras that seem natural to them, and their genes are not don’t seem to be holding them back from surviving and thriving in the society. So I think I like that from I think it’s sort of a positive note for us with what’s happening with with the COVID crisis. And I think, you know, when you look at this crisis in terms of like, the next year, your job, my job, and many of your people who are watching this, people are writing them, and rightly so. But if you take a longer term view, if you look at your work and your life over the next 10 years, then I think things become feel feel better, like the world will go back to a semblance of the way it was before. Do you think so? I think we reached you know, top and I’m going to backtrack a little bit you You talk a lot about and I’ve been following your work as well, you talk a lot about the adaptation of trends, you talk a lot about, Hey, this is what’s happening down the line, this is potentially what will happen. Interesting, amazing stuff, I love it, bang on. And here comes COVID-19. It just amplifies and accelerates some parts of our life, for example, web conferencing, or remote work or work from home or whatever you call it. And nobody expected that to happen at such a fast pace. Now, we’re all talking about, Hey, this is the new normal, I don’t think this is the new normal, I think the new normal is coming until we adapt and go through this change. But here we go. We have had rapid acceleration in some things. And some things will be amazing, because now we’ve really found out these cool things to do and better way of doing things. I think the new normal interest me the tomorrow that we will arrive that after we stabilize, and we cannot have this crisis is something that excites me, because that will be a better, faster, more efficient world. And probably this, you know, it’s like going on, it’s like a boost. It’s a shot of adrenaline that humanity’s going through. And I think it’s amazing, it’s taken us out from that malaise and rapidly accelerated what we do. Right? You know, I, I’ve heard people refer to this place that we’re in right now as either the great reset, or the great pause. And I think you probably have heard both of those as well. And many people watching. And to me, those are sort of different ideas, it’s different ways of looking at what we’re going through and how we’re going to come out of it. The great reset, I think is talking about, you know, the kind of thing that you were just mentioning that we’re going to come out of it in a different kind of a world than we are today. And no one’s sure exactly what that’s going to look like. But it will be created. And then the other side of it is it’s the great pause that we’re just sort of taking a few months now to everyone’s stopping their lives. Not everyone, but most people sort of stopping their lives, pausing their lives. And then things after COVID ends, everything will get back to normal. Yeah, yeah, those feel like two different ideas to me. Yeah. And I actually am more of a great pause guy. So I think that there will be changes for sure, of course. But when I look at, you know, humanity, and the basis between the way that we act, it has to do with, you know, who people are, we’re social beings, we’re selfish beings. And all of those sort of core things about humanity don’t change. So I’m reading and hearing so many people talk about, oh, this can be fantastic, we’re going to come out of it, you know, loving our neighbors more and appreciating our lives more. And unfortunately, I think for the most part, Bs, and one of the reasons I see that is when you look at in the United States, the the stimulus money that the government is giving to small businesses is being first of all, it’s being distributed through banks who are distributing it to their biggest clients, because they get the biggest fees on that. And it’s going to publicly traded companies who are giving or giving money to their investors, we’re in the middle of this thing. And it’s not changing people’s behavior, it’s sort of people are talking about, it’s gonna be wonderful. But what I’m seeing is people are people, unfortunately, and in, you know, a few years from now, it’s going to be closer to the great pause than the great reset. Do you think a reason for that is the fact that our world is, let’s say, moving fast, because of technology and all of these things, distractions, and they’ll all of that is still I mean, people are watching more Netflix right now. They’re watching more television and online shows and all of that, right? So they’re distracting themselves with all of these things, despite the fact that we’re all sitting at home. I think there could be a reason for the fact that people will go back to their old way of doing things maybe after six months or a year or two years, is because of the world around them. It’s because that’s what the world around them looks like. And I agree with you that there’s a huge possibility that people will just Come out of this once they go back to their jobs, and they’ll feel good for a month. But then after two months, they’ll you know, it’s like going on a vacation one month coming back from your vacation, you feel you never gone on a vacation. Right. Right. And so it’s possible. Yes, it’s interesting. Let me let me say something about a more sort of positive level, which is that, you know, trends, some, some trends change quickly. And some change, some change more incrementally. And I think there’s a lot of people who are hoping that this is such a big deal, that it’s going to, you know, create a sea change in the way people act and the way the world is. And in some cases, it will. But in some cases, what’s actually I think is going to happen is that more incremental change, and if I look back at 2008, after the Great Recession, it did change the way that people acted in their lives, especially younger people, when I think about young millennials at the time, who felt that maybe it’s not the way that they want to live their lives. It’s not like their parents accruing stuff that sort of led to the so called sharing economy, people not wanting to be indebted, as much, especially younger people, it could change people’s attitudes. And I think this will change people’s attitudes in a similar way. And depending on how deep the economic malaise is, it could change people’s attitudes in the way that our, you know, grandparents and some of your watchers, great grandparents change their attitudes after the Great Depression, they lived in a depression mentality the rest of their lives, that that very well could happen. I think the key is, and I feel this is my opinion, that people who despite these times of whatever change, they’re going through people who continue to invest in themselves, they continue to read, they continue to learn, they continue to do all these things that can so that they are getting ready for when things open up, they can do things better, I think they are, they will get the maximum benefit out of this, we’re constantly on a path of self improvement, because that’s what change creates change. You know, that’s the other side of change is self improvement world is changing fast. You look at yourself and improve yourself faster and faster and faster. So I really hope those are gonna come out on the top. I do believe also that all these stimuluses that governments are giving in Canada, United States, a few other places, it’s going to come back in form of taxes in form of other things. So it’s not free money that’s being distributed. But of course, it’s helping people keep doors open and, you know, small businesses wherever they’re, they’re struggling. So I think it’s a great thing. But But people also need to keep Be aware that, you know, it’s got to be paid back with interest. There’s no such thing as a free lunch. I want to ask you about trends. You know, many times you probably come across people, who are the naysayers who don’t believe in your trends, who say, hey, Daniel, I don’t think that’s going to happen. I don’t think cars will ever fly. Come on, tell us something different. How do you work with those people? Or what’s your response to those people? Well, to be honest, it I actually don’t usually get those responses, mainly, because when I’m talking about things that will happen, I’m informed by things that are already happening. So I’m using those as examples. This is how things morph in the world. So let me give you an example. You know, I’m often asked, What’s the difference between a trend and a fad, because people often confuse those two things. And one of the main there’s a few differentiators, but one of the main ones is longevity. So you know, fad is oftentimes something that happens comes on quickly and leaves quickly. And a trend is something more long lasting, that you can make a business plan around. So when it comes to like wearable technology, is that a trend or a fad? wearable technology? And my argument is that wearable technology is a trend because humans have been wearing technology since almost the beginning of humanity when it was a sword by their side will is any particular product, you know, watch or headset or anything is that the trend probably not the those things. Anything that has a brand on it is usually a fad or part of a bigger trend. So by using examples like that, I think that this is a way that I explain where the world is heading. And that it’s not that that’s why I’m not making these, you know, guesses about 50 years from now. But what some of the things are trends and fads that you’re seeing come out of this COVID-19 crises? Well, I think one of the thing that struck me when you were telling me that you’re speaking to people from all different industries, you know, what I do is I sort of bring those all together to understand the big trends because trends are not siloed by industry trends are about what people are thinking and feeling. And you know, we’re all looking for the same trends to be answered in every part of our lives, the cars we buy the clothing, we wear, the vacations, we will eventually take, again, for ourselves. It’s about it’s about lifestyle and the way that we perceive ourselves and want to be perceived by others. So what struck me when you were telling me this about all these people from different industries is I think one of the things that ties all of that together, is that we’re seeing right now an acceleration of many of the trends that were already in motion. And I think that I’m sure you’re seeing that as well, he and this is sort of a time, this, this, this culture quake that we’re in is accelerating a lot of the things that were already happening. So it’s not necessarily about starting completely new things. A great example is exactly what we’re doing right here talking by video. This is something that was in motion before, but is now on steroids. And there are so many examples of that across the industrial spectrum, Bradley said there’s many industries, Daniels that are that are very slow in adoption, I work across different verticals. And I see some of them being very slow when it comes to adapting to change, for example, financial industry takes a lot of time to do things, because they’re inherently they’re got a complex structure, the accounting world there, they have practices that go 500 years back. And so for these industries, I think it’s, it’s a really great time to look at these new trends that are shaping the world adapt to new ways of working, and use all these things, trends to create more efficiency in business. I mean, that’s what technology does, it creates efficiency, it helps you, you know, reduce whatever expense, so on and so forth. So I think it’s a, it’s a great way to create more value. And to go back to the drawing board, I’ve been telling people, hey, you’re doing if you’re doing nothing right now, then go back to the drawing board, strategize with your team every single day. And think of new ideas that can perhaps make your business different. And I see a lot of companies doing that as well. Daniel, I know we don’t have a lot of time, help us understand the top three suggestions, recommendations, advice, guidance that you would give viewers watching this. And we’ve got a diverse set of viewers watching this, what should they do in order to adapt or look into trends? Or how to implement trends into their businesses? And kind of, is there a step by step approach? Is there a process that you recommend you teach? Thanks, the the, you know, trends are extremely powerful, because they show you what customers are thinking and feeling they’re showing you about the world from a from a market pull perspective, I think I wouldn’t have a job and maybe do and a lot of people who work in marketing and sort of adjuncts to marketing, if people or business people in particular, were really good at seeing themselves from outside of themselves. That’s what marketers are great at marketers, or, in general, I think are the specialists and seeing the business world from outside of the business world from seeing it from the customer’s perspective. And that’s what the power of trends, the trends are like the secret sauce, of understanding getting inside the brain of what people are thinking and feeling and what’s motivating them to act. And so in a case like we’re in right now, it’s there’s a lot of motivators behind what’s motivating, you know, what, why people are acting, that the two most obvious ones concerns about health and concerns about the economy. And those two things are where we’re going to see the biggest changes, just like 911 changed everything. In regards to security, this thing, this crisis will change, you know, everything quote, unquote, in regard to the way we perceive our health, that will be one of the long lasting effects. So a powerful way that your watchers can understand that is by discovering what their customers are looking for, in a bigger sense, not just in their particular business, again, because trends are not siloed. by industry, their customers are looking for the same to buy or the same products and services based on the way that they’re feeling and the way that they are in the world. And as I said, what’s happening, and one way to track those is on trend watching sites. And I’ll just give a little plug for for wiki trends, which is wiki trend.org. It’s run by the avanti guidance Institute, which is the company that I’m the director of it’s a free website that’s updated every day with some of the most interesting and important trends that we’re seeing. Come across our desks every day and working with people like you and people like me who spent what, you know, we spend our lives our business lives looking at the future and what that’s going to bring to businesses. It’s an extremely powerful thing for business to understand. And, and I think it’s a benefit that, you know, it’s sort of a silver lining, if you could call it that of what we’re going through right now is that people like you and me are indemand right now, Daniel again, aftershock is Daniel has contributed to aftershock, I’m in it and we’ve got 50 other plus other people, amazing people who’ve written this book, we came together and wrote this. It’s really thick. It’s a thick volume, but every chapter is different. That’s what I love about aftershock. It’s available on Amazon, please, folks, if you’re listening or watching, buy a copy of Amazon. And also Daniel, tell us where people can find you and check your work that you’ve given us one website, the E trends.org. Tell me more if there’s other URLs that we can visit. Great, thank you, Daniel levine.com. That’s my personal website. But my business I’m the head of the avant garde Institute at avanti guide.com. And yes, you’re all welcome. And I love talking about this stuff. Give me a call and let’s chat. And thank you Daniel. So Daniel levine.com, event guide.com, Vicki trends.org. Folks, Daniel is the person to go to when you want to learn about trends, what’s shaping the world where we’re headed, what you should do what you should ignore what you should pay attention to. My friend Daniel Levine, according to aftershock really amazing, gentlemen, as well. Daniel, thank you so much for your time. I thank you so much for inviting me. And everybody listening, health and wealth and good future thinking. Absolutely. Let’s hope for the best and I know the future is definitely what we created today what we focus on today. So folks get to work, figure out your tomorrow despite the disruption that’s happening, and you will come out shining Thank you so much. Thank you. Hey, friend, this is Ian Khan. If you like what you saw on my video, then please subscribe to my YouTube channel and be inspired every single day with innovative content that keeps you fresh, updated and ready for the future. For more information. Also visit my website at Ian khan.com
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by Ian Khan | Feb 10, 2021 | Ian Khan Blog, Ian Khan's Blog, Podcast
Byron Reese – Author, Speaker, Entrepreneur in conversation with Futurist Ian Khan
In this episode, i speak with globally recognized Futurist Daniel Levine, also a co-contributor to the recent book “After Shock”.
Bio (In Byron’s own words)
Hello, my name is Byron Reese. I enjoy studying technology and history, contemplating their intersection with the future, and writing and speaking about it all.
I have always loved technology. As a kid, I was always taking stuff apart to figure out how it worked. I grew convinced that I must have a knack for engineering because whenever I would put something back together, I always had a few pieces leftover. If that isn’t talent, I don’t know what is.
Like many people that are fascinated by technology, I loved science fiction. I was, and still am, a big Star Trek fan. Years ago, I read a quote by the creator of Star Trek, Gene Roddenberry. He said that in the future, “There would be no hunger, there would be no greed, and all the children will know how to read.”
This quote gnawed at me, and I wondered if it was true. Or did it just sound true because it rhymed? So I decided to try to figure it out. That’s how I became a futurist.
I got into business early in life. When I was 12, my mom asked me to paint our house number on our curb with a stencil. Our neighbor, Mr. Roland, saw me doing it and asked me to do his as well. Afterwards, he gave me $5. Five bucks! For five minutes work. In 1980! I remember hearing a distinct “ka-ching” inside my head. I immediately started going door-to-door and made a kid-sized fortune. I have been an entrepreneur ever since.
After I had some business success as an adult, I began getting invitations to give talks. Good speakers write a speech and give it over and over. I am not a good speaker. I have never given the same speech twice. I just can’t bring myself to do it… it feels like I am phoning it in. So, I would give talks about whatever I was interested in at the time. After a while, I noticed that the same themes were coming up over and over. Suddenly that collection of speeches looked a lot like a book. That’s how I became an author. My latest book is about AI and is called “The Fourth Age: Smart Robots, Conscious Computers, and the Future of Humanity.”
Today, I am requested to speak to both technical and non-technical audiences around the world. I invite you to check out my Talks on Tomorrow and visit my blog for a collection of writing including my articles on artificial intelligence and interviews with today’s AI thought leaders.
Whether I am writing or speaking, you are sure to find me exploring the intersection of technology, business, and the future. Follow me on Twitter at @byronreese
About After Shock
The world’s foremost futurists reflect on 50 years of Future Shock—and look ahead to the next 50
Contributors include:
Alan Kay
Aaron Frank
Adrienne Mayor
Alexander Mankowsky
Alexandra Ivanovitch
Alisha Bhagat
Amy Zalman
Anders Sorman-Nilsson
Andra Keay
Andrew Curry
Andy Hines
Anita Sengupta
Anne Lise Kjaer
Aris Persidis
Aubrey de Grey
Barry O’Reilly
Barry Vacker
Bill Davidow
Bill Diamond
Bryan Alexander
Byron Reese
Carlos Osorio
Carver Mead
Cat Tully
Cindy Frewen
Clem Bezold
Daniel Burrus
Daniel Levine
David Brin
David Guston
David Krakauer
David J. Staley
David Weinberger
Deb Westphal
Diane M. Francis
Donna Dupont
Eleanor “Nell” Watson
Eric Daimler
Erica Bol
Erik Qualman
Fotis Sotiropoulos
George Gilder
Grady Booch
Gray Scott
Hannes Sjoblad
Harish Natarajan
Hazel Henderson
Helen Messier
Ian Khan
Ignacio Pena
Jack Uldrich
James Canton
Jane McGonigal
Jason Jackson
Jason Schenker
Jay Gambetta
Jeff Eisenach
Jeffrey C. Bauer
Jerome Glenn
Jerry Fishenden
Joe Dispenza
Joe Tankersley
Joel Garreau
John L. Petersen
John M. Smart
John Sack
John Sanei
John Schroeter
Jonathan Venn
José Morey
Kaitlyn Sadtler
Kirk Borne
Klee Irwin
Kris Østergaard
Lisa Bodell
Maciej Kranz
Martin Guigui
Martin Rees
Maggie Greyson
Michael Tomczyk
Michel Laberge
Mick Ebeling
Moon Ribas
Naveen Jain
Neil Jacobstein
Newt Gingrich
Patricia Lustig & Gill Ringland
Paul Saffo
Paul Stimers
Po Bronson & Arvind Gupta
Ray Kurzweil
Rebecca Costa
Richard Browning
Richard Slaughter
Richard Watson
Richard Yonck
Rodrigo Nieto Gómez
Rohit Bhargava
Ross Dawson
Ruth Miller
Sanjiv Chopra & Pankaj K Vij
Sohail Inayatullah
Sridhar Mahadevan
Stan Rosen
Stephanie Mehta
Steve Waite
Tanya Accone
Terrence (Terry) Sejnowski
Teun Koetsier
Theodore Jay Gordon
Thomas Frey
Timothy Chou
Vikram Mansharamani
Wolfgang Fengler
Zoltan Istvan
Full Transcript : Hi friends this is Ian Khan and you’re listening to the Ian Khan show. And this is an aftershock special episode, which means I’m speaking with a co contributor to the recent book aftershock. I’m speaking with Byron Reese today and Byron is an Austin based author. And his most recent book is the fourth age smart robots, conscious computers and the future of humanity. Byron Reese. barn Welcome to the Ian Khan show.
I’m so excited to have you on board. Where exactly are you right now. I am in Austin, Texas. And I’m happy to be here. amazing to be here with you. Oh, thank you. I so appreciate you making time for me. You know, we’re both contributors to aftershock, which our good friend john shorter has put together thanks to him for bringing together an amazing group of people like yourselves and others that I’ve interviewed on the show so far. Byron, I am learning I’m drinking from the hose when I’m interviewing people like yourself just because of the things I’m hearing and people that are sharing. So thank you for joining me, I’m happy to be here. Let’s talk about connection. You know, in your article in your work, and I’ve seen some of your work online as well, you talk a lot about people need to change their perception of a world driven by technology, because it just has a bad rep so many times when it comes to not losing jobs, but creating more jobs, engagement. And we’re living in a post COVID world today, the world has definitely changed. What are your thoughts in a COVID world, and your ideas of technology in general. Human beings are about 100 watts of power, that’s what we have your and if you were dropped on a desert island, you would feel the limits of that. And a long time ago, we learned a trick, and that is technology. And we use technology to multiply what we’re able to do. You can measure it in a number of ways. One way is you know, energy consumption. Now the average person in the West uses 10,000 watts of power few 100 extra yourself throughout society because of this trick we learned. And all it does, it’s a very simple thing all technology does is any increases human productivity. And that is always good for everyone. And if you challenge that, if you disagree with that, consider the alternative where you pass the law that said everybody has to work with one arm tied behind their back, what would happen? Well, you would create 100 jobs, because you need twice as many people to do anything. But the jobs wouldn’t pay very well, because productivity went down. And so it’s always good to increase human productivity. That’s the story of why we live so much better lives and even our great grandparents lives. Absolutely. Let’s break some misconceptions here. I’ve worked with a lot of industries, myself, you’re out there, you’re doing amazing work of it, what you do, you often hit a roadblock, when you tell people hey, here’s five different things, five different new technologies are ways to create efficiency in your organization, whether it’s an accounting firm, a manufacturing company, a doctor’s clinic, and the first thing they think is Oh my God, is my job going to be done Am I going to be done and probably the first few thoughts that go to their head, or like, I’m going to lose my income, I’m gonna lose my house, I’m gonna lose my kids in car and my wife’s gonna leave me, my kids and all that whole barrage of negative thoughts. How can we really convince people that technology is actually good for us? I mean, the proof is all around us. How do we get to to these people? Well, I would say it this way, I’ve spent a lot of time trying to figure out the half life of a job. And I think it’s 50 years or put another way, I think, every 50 years, we lose half of all the jobs. It’s been going on for about 250 years. And what’s interesting in this country, with the exception of today, and the Great Depression, unemployment, it’s never been over 10%. We know it’s not over 10% now because of technology, nor in the depression. So you think about all these technological changes that came along, and you can’t see them in a graph of unemployment, you replaced all animal power with steam and 22 years can’t see it that an unemployment, you invented a kind of artificial intelligence known as the assembly line, you can’t see it. Here’s the kind of conceptual thing that I think maybe helps people a little bit. They say to me, Look, there’s a range of jobs whose jobs at the top that are high paid high skilled jobs, and their jobs. Were at the bottom that are low skilled, low pay, like order taker, fast food. And they say, look, technology’s great at creating these new jobs at the top like a geneticist, but it destroys the jobs and the bottom line, order takers, fast food. And then here’s what people say. And I think this is what freaks everybody out. They say, you really think that person who was the order taker at the fast food place can learn to be a geneticist? Can the people who are losing their jobs, learn to code or whatever? And the answer is no, that isn’t how it works. Ever. What happens is a college biology professor becomes a geneticist and then a high school biology teacher goes into the college job, then a substitute teacher gets hired on full time at the high school all the way down the line. The question isn’t, Can people at the bottom do the new jobs that are created? The question is Can everybody on this planet do a job a little harder than the job they have today? So anybody listening, can you do a job just a little harder. There. The job you have today, if so, that’s 250 years of economic history in this country for 250 years, we technology creates jobs at the top, it destroys jobs at the bottom, and everybody shifts up a notch. And that’s why we have 50% of the jobs lost every half century, but rising wages, and it’s for that reason, there is not a person listening, I would wager, who is absolutely out there mental and physical capacity. And I have found that most people want to do more if they make a little more money. And that’s what the future looks like you use technology to multiply what you’re able to do you increase your productivity, and you’re paid more for it. Absolutely. also believe that and I completely agree with you, I think majority of people in the world undermine their capability of creating some change, sometimes maybe they don’t connect with, you know, when people come out and say, Hey, I’m going to change the world. And there’s all the naysayers who say, yeah, we’ve heard that before they’re going to fail. But you know, what there’s, there’s there’s a middle ground here, right between the super motivational people to the super D motivated people. There’s people who are creating change right now, by taking action, creating plans, creating strategies executing on their tasks, and there has to be a systematic process of notching up. There’s got to be systematic process. And I think there’s a disconnect there, where people don’t understand that process. And they give up, they just, they just give up on themselves, which is not great. No, I think to just add to that, I think the number one jobs skill in the future is the ability to teach yourself new things. And the good news is, everybody can do it. If I went I’m 52 years old, if I went back to high school, I went to school in the 80s. And I could there’s only one class I could have taken back then that would be useful to me today. And that was piping? And who would have guessed. And so it’s like everything, you know, for the most part you didn’t learn at school, you taught yourself or somebody taught you and so your capacity to learn more, and to do what you’re saying have an impact is without question and everybody has that’s what makes humans different than other creatures. Absolutely. Now, it’s been so interesting doing this book aftershock, because john reached out to I think all of us and said, Hey, write about future shots. This book was written 50 years ago by Alvin Toffler 50 years ago, it’s so far back. And then you’ve got to brush your old copy of Future Shock and say, Okay, let’s see what’s in. Let me have a read. And there you find Alvin Toffler writes about things, 50 years forward, amazing things, very accurate things in the state of the world. Like he got it right, so many different times in so many different things. What were your initial thoughts? When whenever you read that book, or looking at Toffler and his work, felt somewhat inadequate? You know, it’s, I wasn’t even sure I was going to contribute, because it’s such a guest company. But I’ll come right back and answer that very directly. But if you go back just 25 years, that’s when the mosaic browser came out. The first, you know, the consumer web. And if you went back 25 years ago, half that time, half of 50. And you ask a very smart technical person, hey, what’s this browser thing going to do to the world? They would say two jobs, they would say, look, it’s gonna probably get rid of all the stockbrokers get rid of all the travel agents get rid of all the Yellow Pages, all the newspapers are gonna have trouble. And they would have been right about everything. But what nobody would have gotten was everything that would create it, Uber, Etsy, Airbnb, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, all of that. And that’s where the fear comes from is you can always see what it’s going to destroy. But none of us have imagination to see what’s going to create and Toffler did, and that’s, to me, what’s different, we all get nervous about what technology is going to take away or change that we don’t like on namas. None of us can look at everybody could in 1995 see that there would be at CDA and all that it would have been started in 1996. But they weren’t, you know, it took a decade or more before these really kind of core companies even came into being because it just takes a while to kind of get with the flow of the technologies. Oh, I could sell what’s in my attic with this thing or what have you. So I think that’s what’s so impressive about Toffler is, is he could I mean, nobody’s perfect, but he could see both sides of the equation. Well, yeah, I can have a lot of faith that the other side of the equation is there, but I don’t purport to see it. Yeah. You know, I think, you know, my kids are gonna be short Wranglers. And you know, all these made up words I’m just making up because I don’t know what they are. But they’re gonna be something is different. But it’ll come out to be but I don’t know what it is. And thank you so much for that. They say that we are living in an era of exponential growth. And there’s all bars, charts, data that exponential growth in the world in technology is happening Wait, Moore’s law has been broken by 2025 or 2045 will be a new road race and we’ll have implants. How much of that do you subscribe, like, what’s your vision of where we will be realistically in the next 25 years? Here’s the next 25 years. Well, I’m, I’m not a singularity. And I don’t believe that our computing that once computers become, you know, smarter than us, then two years later, they’ll be twice as smart. And then four times, and then eventually they won’t even know what we are. I think that viewpoint is based on a, I used to host this podcast on AI, that’s my shtick. And I had 120 guests, and I would ask them all the same question. And 95% of them answered this question. Yes. And then I give lots of speeches. And I ask audiences the same question and only 15% of audiences say yes, and the question is, are people machines? Are you a machine? And people in AI are, you know, normally say, Well, what else would we be? And at some point, if we’re nothing but machines, we’re gonna build a mechanical person. And then two years later, that will be twice as good and, and they’re entirely right. If we aren’t machines, for whatever reason, scientific, spiritual, whatever you want to pick biological quantum, then there is no machine that will ever do what people do. And therefore I don’t think that those kinds of nightmare scenarios are even possible, until I, unlike my 95% of my guess, I don’t believe we’re machines, or it hasn’t been proven to me that we’re machines, we have brains, we don’t understand that give rise to minds, we don’t understand. And we have consciousness, which means we don’t, a computer can measure temperature, but you can feel warm. And that difference is often called the last scientific question. We don’t even know how to pose scientifically. And so I’m convinced computers, and I think they need all three of that I think they need a brain in mind, and first person experience. And I’m convinced I don’t have that much faith, they do that, that we’re going to build that. So to me, if I believe as I do, increase productivity is always good for people, all this technology is just going to increase our productivity. I mean, I wrote a book called infinite progress because I believe that you know, our destiny I look in the night sky sure looks like there’s a lot of room out there for us to expand into doesn’t feel crowded at all. And I imagine a day you know, is a billion people on a billion different planets, each with a Mary Curie and each with a Leonardo and each with a JK Rowling and each with a Lynn manual, Miranda, you know, all the rest. And that’s the world I believe in not, oh, we’re just machines, we’re going to build a better version of ourselves, and it’s going to rule over us and i don’t i don’t believe it. Thank you. Now in 2020, we’ve seen something unprecedented, which is COVID-19 never saw it. Never were expecting it. Like everybody was going about their business. What can you say? It’s unprecedented? But do you really mean that? It’s never I mean, that that is probably the most common thing in human history, isn’t it? famines? I mean, pandemics are more common than wars. But go ahead. My point was that I don’t think an average person was expecting to undergo what we went in 2019, let’s say the lockdowns and people are getting sick, and many people succumb to this pandemic. So there’s there was a lot of unknowns that hit an average common person. What should we expect from a world should we always expect in a world that’s full of technology? In a world where human relationships are not what they used to be 20 3050 years ago? And also looking into the future a few years? What should our expectations be from the world that we should always expect change, we should always expect and be ready for events like this. And I want you to hear it from you as an as a leader, because you inspire a lot of people, how do you go about understanding what the world needs you? There was a time they think genetically based on the genetic diversity of any to humans, they think there was a time 75,000 years ago that we were down to 800 mating pairs of humans that was it $800 million? I mean, we were an endangered species. And somehow we who would have bet on us then by the way, who would have said, Oh, no, that those are those are the ones that are gonna take over and, and our history since then, has been one of continued, you know, advancement. We even created human rights and trial by jury and democracy and individual liberty and all the rest. And we also and we did it through technology, and through technology, we learned to control our environment better. And that’s really what we’re trying to do even now. We’re inherently a fearful species. We come by that honestly. Someone said once that back in the day, it made more sense for us to see a rock think it was a bear. Oh, it’s a bear run away and run away then to see this bear that it’s probably just the rock and get eaten. And so we’re these kind of tentative frightened creatures. So that’s our history. And we have that we have a predisposition to fear and all kinds of things play on it. A lot of I think a lot of people want people to be afraid and you know, profit by your fear and all that The rest. But if you say that you still only be 100 pairs of us, we get nothing. And look at all we did. And along the way, by the way, we created art, and music. And we we learn to care for the weak among us. And I mean, we’re doing pretty well. And so I would encourage people not to understand that, you know, in our heart, we’re still like, it could be a bear. But know that and to say we, every day have more mastery of our world. And tomorrow, we will have even more. And finally, we’re fundamentally good, because if we weren’t, we never would have made it this far. The only way we got to hear from way back then, is because we learned altruism, and we learned to work together. And there are all kinds of people who are bad in the world. I’m not denying that. But the way we got here is because more people want to build and destroy and more people want to work together than destroy. And so in our hearts, we’re we’re good. I believe in us like, we’ve got this barn. Thank you. I know we don’t have a lot of time with you. I do appreciate you jumping on board for a quick podcast episode. As a final question. What advice would you give all our listeners and viewers and people out there in the world who are trying to make a good living trying to do the right thing? What should they do in three steps? maybe one or two or three steps? What’s your advice to the world? How do they go about their life? What should they expect from the future? I don’t like to tell people what they should do. But I can say what I do. And you were talking earlier about how technology creates new jobs at the top and destroys one at the ones at the bottom and everybody shifts up a notch. I tried to apply that to my life. I tried to say what aspects of my life can technology create great new opportunities and great new experiences? Where am I an order taker at a fast food place? Like I do a ton of things like that in my day to day life? Where can I use technology to destroy those jobs those parts of my life I can I use it to destroy so I don’t have to do them. And that’s just like philosophically how I look at my day. I want to use technology to either automate mundane things, I don’t have to do them or create new opportunities. For me, technology really is this thing. It’s it’s not magic, but it behaves like magic. It multiplies what you’re able to do. It makes you you know more than you were before. It comes with its pitfalls, but it’s very powerful when when applied correctly. Incredible. Byron Hey, thank you so much. I really appreciate it. Folks. aftershock is one of the books where Byron has gone muted. Byron tell us where people can find you get a copy of your book, learn more about your incredible work. Oh, thank you. I’m an easiest person in the world to find. I’m Byron Reese on everything. I’m Byron Reese on twitter.com. Just type that in your search engine of choice and you will have many options. Alrighty. Well, Byron, thank you for sharing your time with us. Really appreciate it and hope to see you very soon in the future and keep inspiring people. Thank you so much. Thanks for having me. Hey, friend, this is Ian Khan. If you like what you saw on my video, then please subscribe to my YouTube channel and be inspired every single day with innovative content that keeps you fresh, updated and ready for the future. For more information. Also visit my website at Ian khan.com
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by Ian Khan | Feb 10, 2021 | Ian Khan Blog, Ian Khan's Blog, Podcast
Patricia Lustig , CEO of LASA Insights, Bestselling Author in conversation with Futurist Ian Khan
In this episode, I speak with Patricia Lustig, a globally recognised Futurist and CEO of LASA Insights. She is also a co-contributor to the recent book “After Shock”.
Bio
Patricia Lustig is the Chief Executive of LASA Insight Ltd. Specialist in Strategy and Foresight, Change Design and Community Engagement, she has over 30 years of experience in the corporate, not-for-profit and public sectors from Board Level to the factory floor. She has worked in Europe, Asia and the US. She uses strength-based approaches to change.
She has published two books, Beyond Crisis: achieving renewal in a turbulent world, John Wiley & Sons, 2010 and Here Be Dragons: navigating an uncertain world, The Choir Press 2012. Her latest book Strategic Foresight: learning from the future was published in July 2015 by Triarchy Press.
Learn more about Patricia at https://www.lasa-insight.com/
About After Shock
The world’s foremost futurists reflect on 50 years of Future Shock—and look ahead to the next 50
Contributors include:
Alan Kay
Aaron Frank
Adrienne Mayor
Alexander Mankowsky
Alexandra Ivanovitch
Alisha Bhagat
Amy Zalman
Anders Sorman-Nilsson
Andra Keay
Andrew Curry
Andy Hines
Anita Sengupta
Anne Lise Kjaer
Aris Persidis
Aubrey de Grey
Barry O’Reilly
Barry Vacker
Bill Davidow
Bill Diamond
Bryan Alexander
Byron Reese
Carlos Osorio
Carver Mead
Cat Tully
Cindy Frewen
Clem Bezold
Daniel Burrus
Daniel Levine
David Brin
David Guston
David Krakauer
David J. Staley
David Weinberger
Deb Westphal
Diane M. Francis
Donna Dupont
Eleanor “Nell” Watson
Eric Daimler
Erica Bol
Erik Qualman
Fotis Sotiropoulos
George Gilder
Grady Booch
Gray Scott
Hannes Sjoblad
Harish Natarajan
Hazel Henderson
Helen Messier
Ian Khan
Ignacio Pena
Jack Uldrich
James Canton
Jane McGonigal
Jason Jackson
Jason Schenker
Jay Gambetta
Jeff Eisenach
Jeffrey C. Bauer
Jerome Glenn
Jerry Fishenden
Joe Dispenza
Joe Tankersley
Joel Garreau
John L. Petersen
John M. Smart
John Sack
John Sanei
John Schroeter
Jonathan Venn
José Morey
Kaitlyn Sadtler
Kirk Borne
Klee Irwin
Kris Østergaard
Lisa Bodell
Maciej Kranz
Martin Guigui
Martin Rees
Maggie Greyson
Michael Tomczyk
Michel Laberge
Mick Ebeling
Moon Ribas
Naveen Jain
Neil Jacobstein
Newt Gingrich
Patricia Lustig & Gill Ringland
Paul Saffo
Paul Stimers
Po Bronson & Arvind Gupta
Ray Kurzweil
Rebecca Costa
Richard Browning
Richard Slaughter
Richard Watson
Richard Yonck
Rodrigo Nieto Gómez
Rohit Bhargava
Ross Dawson
Ruth Miller
Sanjiv Chopra & Pankaj K Vij
Sohail Inayatullah
Sridhar Mahadevan
Stan Rosen
Stephanie Mehta
Steve Waite
Tanya Accone
Terrence (Terry) Sejnowski
Teun Koetsier
Theodore Jay Gordon
Thomas Frey
Timothy Chou
Vikram Mansharamani
Wolfgang Fengler
Zoltan Istvan
Publication Details
ISBN Print: 978-0-9997364-4-9
ISBN eBook: 978-0-9997364-5-6
Hi friends this is Ian Khan and you’re listening to the Ian Khan show. In this episode we’re going to have a conversation with a co contributor to the book aftershock. My guest today is Patricia Lustig, who leads lassa. Inside limited and a strategic foresight company, Patricia uses foresight, horizon scanning and futures tools to help organizations develop insights into emerging trends, develop a successful strategy and implement that change. He’s also author and co author of four books and numerous articles over Patricia Lustig.
Welcome to the Ian Khan show. I’m so thrilled to have you. How are you today? Very good. Excellent. So we are talking because we’re both contributors to aftershock book put together by a good friend, john shorter tons and tons of really nice articles that lightning that are invigorating. I’ve read what you and Jill have written in aftershock. And I’m we’re going to talk about that today. In this episode, tell me a little bit about what you do, Patricia? Well, I’m what’s called a futurist. So many of the people in this book are and the thing I’m really about is helping people to think more long term, because individuals and businesses and organizations tend to think very much in the short term and not enough long term, and it will come and bite them in the bum as it is doing right at this very moment. It’s very interesting as people are realizing it. Absolutely. And one of the things that really stood out for me when I as I read your piece is our ability to cope up with change how we’re coping up with change, and we’re going to talk about that a little bit. You also have a co contributor, Gil ringland, who couldn’t join us today. And Jill has really amazing career. Both of you are contributors to multiple publications and multiple books. How did this collaboration come about? We both worked for ICL, and we started by writing an article together about scenario planning. And we have been writing partners and I’ve written three books and we’re on our fourth together in the last 20 years. That’s incredible. And it’s hard writing me someone else’s very hard. But when you get used to it, we write very well together we have what is called robust discussions, a lot of argument, and we get much better stuff out because we’ve got two of us working on it that way. Yeah, absolutely. Let’s talk about some of the things that you’ve written. Let’s talk about Toffler. And if that was an influence for you, or what your thoughts were about future shock, when you first read it, what do you think about Future Shock? 50 years after it has been written? You still feel some of the things and were bang on? Some of them were not how do you think we’re living today? As you know, written in Future Shock so many years ago? Yeah, I think, well, it really excited me when I read it. So I must have known I was going to become a futurist. But I think the thing for us is the thing that we wrote about, which was that he just made an assumption, which was easy to make, in the time that it was written that people were not going to be able to cope with the amount of change that was coming. I don’t think he underestimated the amount of change. But I don’t I do think that they underestimated together because we mustn’t forget, he wrote it with a writing partner as well, with Heidi, we mustn’t forget the time he was in, and that we look back. And we always think that less change has happened and really has happened. And we think looking forward that less change will happen, then will really happen. And human beings can cope, and most of us do. But as we said in the chapter, it is more difficult for older people, the older you get than it is for younger people. And so why is that? Is it because we’re holding on to our mindset? Or is it because we have access to some new things. And you’ve written a lot in the article about some of the newer things that are happening in the world, some of the revolution, some of the social things, some of the crowd sourced things that are happening? Let’s talk about that. You talk about Greta Greta Thornburg, you talk about the earthquake in Nepal, help us understand how people have coped with change, or maybe lived in a different way right now than they were in the past. And those examples, what happened was they embraced the change better, I think, or more easily than some older people. I mean, I can I’m two generations before them. You know, we were talking about people born after 1980. So my kids and I don’t automatically think about using social media in the way that these kids who have had it for most of their adult lives, do it. It isn’t that I can’t use it or that I don’t eventually think of using it. But what is the case is that I don’t think of it First off, it just it was a no brainer, as you would say that they would use this and that they would use it in this way. And, you know, in particular, I I did know quite a bit about the Yellow House because I was involved. They just, they just did it without seeing that this was different or new. Whereas for me, somebody who’s older, it is different than you and I have to think about it, I have to struggle to think about it. It’s not as automatic. And for them, they grew up with it. And I think we probably had that with every generation going forward. It’s just the change happens more quickly, and in shorter cycles now than it used to. I hear you on that. And I think there’s definitely that aspect of, and I don’t know, if it’s not just technology, that people are not technology savvy, it’s not that anymore, because we all are using technology, computers, they’re just part of life. I think maybe the reason could be that where it you know, it’s not embedded into us, like, I have a four year old son, and I’ll tell you a personal story. And his entertainment when we allow it is maybe spending time on the iPad playing a game or you know, doing some work. So he’s already working with technology from from such a young agent, all kids today are, at our time when I was growing up, we didn’t have an iPad, we had those small Nintendo games with a black and white screen, or we’re coming up. And so I think it’s generally what are we exposed to in our environment? Now you talk a lot about, you know, how people are, can do more in with what they have and reach more people and create more change of RV becoming bigger value creators today, because we have access to all of these things. That’s a typical one. Yes. And there’s another piece to it because we are capable of creating more because of it. And you can say, is it a big step or not, you can look at the steps that happened before they were big, too. I mean, just look at the step that happened, the real watershed when the printing press was invented. And the thing that’s different now is that those sort of watersheds happen much more frequently. And it is what your story about your son shows is that it is what we are used to. So what we are used to is front of mind. And with me who didn’t I mean, the computers when I was growing up, didn’t even have transistors, they had those lights, you know, like old television sets did those tubes. That’s how it was. So we didn’t see any of those. So for us, although I worked in it, it wasn’t given as it is for a child now working with an iPad. So you have to go through to a different depths in your brain, I suppose to use it. It’s not the first thing that comes up. It isn’t. I won’t say that it’s not normal, because it is normal, but it’s not front and center like it is with our kids and grandkids. Now, when you’re a futurist, you have a foresight as an area where you work help us understand what can an average person who in order to really look into the future, and I’ve spoken with so many amazing people over the last couple of months, all of whom have been contributors to to aftershock. I’m drinking from the firehose, I’d love to know your perspective on, you know, how do you go about helping people understand the process of proactivity, creating the future or understanding the future or foresight, help us understand? Well, in very, very simple terms, you need to understand that there isn’t a future there is most people think of the future as a continuation of the past. And that’s not real. That never happens. So the best thing you can do is think about different uncertainties that you face. And if this were to happen, and uncertainties use a continuum from, you know, say inclusive government to exclusive government and say, Well, if it was inclusive, what would that mean for me? And if it was XClusive, what would that mean for me? What would be different so that you aren’t just making a plan for the future? A because that’s the one you think, you know, the continuation business as usual, you are saying, Okay, well, we could have different futures, there’s a range of them, what would I need to do to be successful in each one of them? And how would I know that one of them was happening, and you can read science fiction, although most of it seems to be dystopian and negative? Because that sells, you know, you’ve got Star Trek? That’s, that’s a very positive future. And you can look at those and say, that’s an example of the future. What would I need to do to be successful and enjoy living in that future? An individual doesn’t necessarily have the time to go into all the research and look at all the trends and say, Okay, here’s a future that’s plausible and probable, but you can by watching science fiction on television, by reading books, and by actually giving it a bit of thought, think of some different ones, and figure out how that would be thing. So here’s an example. And I love what you just said. Here’s an example if we watch a lot of let’s say, movies, or Hollywood, there’s so many movies that are sci fi, the you know, going from 10 2050 years to scenarios that that are just mind blowing, right? movies with time travel, movies, with so many different things that it’s impossible to under Right now now today as of right now, we’re living in the era of COVID-19, where we’re battling something that has come out of nowhere. Humanity is not ready for it. We haven’t been enhanced. So many people have died and they’re struggling with with COVID-19. Hopefully, it’s going to go away soon. How do you deal with things that just hit you like a rock, you’re you’re planning your future, you come up with your scenarios? How do you deal with, you know, so called Black Swan events? If this is a black swan event, and people are arguing that as well? How do you deal with events that come out of nowhere as a disrupter? Well, I would, what I what I do. And what I teach is that you always play with a wildcard event, a black swan, is something that has that exists somewhere. And this is a black swan, but I’m not so sure that it is because we knew. And I’ve never written a scenario where we didn’t say there will be a pandemic, we just don’t know the year it is something we know. And it’s been ignored at people’s pedal. But what we do is we pick, we put together a crazy, wild card, and we play with, what would we design for that? Not because it’s going to happen, their high impact but low probability. But because it’s sort of exercises your foresight, brain, you force that muscle, just to try to see what would happen if you got hit by something totally unexpected. What would you do? And how would you make that work? And where would there be advantage? And what would you need to mitigate and adapt to, if you’ve done that once, you might, it might be quicker off the mark for you when it really happens. So foresight is not just about predicting the future, it’s not just about coming up with it’s not ever about predicting the future, because you can’t. So it’s really about helping understand where you could go, let’s talk about business leadership, you know, business leaders that want to understand where their organization will go in the next two 510 1520 years, they can sit down and do the process of foresight, figure out scenarios that can arise right and go through this process with people such as yourself. And many of the amazing exploits that are in future shock to kind of lay out that here is here are four things that can happen tomorrow, because of the decisions we take or not take because of market disruption because of an event a black swan event that we never knew would come or an event that we know, potentially would come in. And so it’s a way to plan your response to what happens in the future. Two things that can happen. And then you you go with one, do you then go with one of the scenarios? Or what do you do? Well, it’s two things, you by looking at the different scenarios, you can figure out where you can do something and where you come. So where do you have influence? How can you you know, we all have a preferable future that we’d like how could we make that happen, because there’s some things you can do something about. And there’s other things you can’t you don’t none of the futures when you make a set of futures, however many it is none of them will come true, all but a piece from this one will come true and a piece from back from will come true, right? And you learn you you talk to how you would know which future you are at. And then you identify Oh, it’s this part of that future. And when that happens, we needed to that’s our plan for this part. And then another part of the future another future comes you have a plan for that. So it’s not going to be I have scenario a and I’ve got my plan for scenario a, you’ve got your plan for the parts of scenario a and if you recognize one of them happening, you do that part of the plan. Does that make sense? Yes, absolutely. It does make sense. What I’m trying to do is I’m trying to help our viewers and listeners understand what foresight is that the process of foresight is so that they can think about it and get used to it. Now, are there some specific tools that we use? I know a lot of people generally will take a marker user whiteboard, post it notes, there’s so many, you know, very low tech ways of doing it. And I think those are the ways that that are really nice, because you’re very flexible. Are there any tools that you specifically use or not? Well, it rather depends on the client and the need what the need is, but one that we use a huge amount of time is a tool called three horizons, which looks at Where are we now? And what are the trends we see now? Where do we see? That’s the first horizon that’s kind of managerial, and then we’re visionary. We look 30 to 40 to 50 years out, what do we see happening there? That’s the horizon three. And then we look at what’s the bridge between so where’s an assumption that we’re making today? That is challenged by one of the assumptions from far out, that’s just not a great big piece of butcher paper with, you know, stickies, little posit notes, and we developed a game for a game board for doing scenarios. The two by two matrix, a two by two matrix is something we can use. There are very many tools. I’ve written a book about this, that people can use and they depend on who the group is what they want to do. How much They’ve got, you know, there’s just a whole list of them for tools, I think you could go to the Association of Professional teachers, it’s called ap f.org. And I’m a board member. So I have to hold my hand up and say that and there are lots of things in the open domain on that, you know, you should be able to find some tools there are lots of people use different tools. I mean, there are tools that can help you do horizon scanning, that can mind for data, there are tools that can use that use an AI to take the data and do something with it. So there’s a huge amount of things you can you can look for. And it really depends on what the outcome is its desired. And the one thing I would say is that in an organization, certainly, when you’re doing foresight, it needs to be participatory, it means that a lot of people need to be part of it. So that you have lots of people on the lookout, as well as helping you with the plans, of course, want to read something from the book from your chapter, in the book, where it says, The combination of powerful technologies, and prosperous economies and genders choice that’s empowered, the luxury of choice includes the way we build our networks, to energize our respective communities in order to get things done. And this is what I wanted to ask is, and you mentioned it as well, is the power of community is the power of consensus is the power of getting other people involved. So futurism or foresight cannot just be done with just one person, you’ve got to engage other people and make them part of the process. And that also helps you with your creativity and innovation around it not just in thinking about different potential futures, but also in how could we create advantage out of this? How can we navigate it, navigate our way from here to there to that future, particularly if you have a specific thing you want to happen? A preferred future, or preferred way for it to go to you need? You can’t do it on your own? There isn’t anybody who can make a future happen by themselves? Good. You mentioned that you mentioned your books. Tell us about your books up at Fisher, I’d love to learn more. I’ve written one that’s won some awards. And this is for people who are not futurist. It’s called strategic foresight, learning from the future. And it explains how you get to think in the way that teachers think. And is this book available online within PBS on Amazon? Okay, it’s on Amazon. Okay. Yeah. So what it does, I’ve taken so explain them the way you think and how you move your mind out of our normal mindset into being more open and thinking much longer term. And identifying because we all have different envelopes, is what I’ll say for what we think about and how to expand the envelope. And then it gives examples of tools that you can use. So the three horizons is one of them. And the two by two matrix is another. But there are lots of different tools. And it’s not all the tools. It’s just here’s a project, and there’s a case study in it. And here’s the tools you can use as you move through the project from start, where you’re doing your research and your horizon scanning, to finish helping implement the changes that need to be implemented. I love it. I’m going to post a link to your book in the description of this video. So if people want to buy it, you can go to the Amazon link and buy it. I haven’t read it yet, but I’d really recommend all viewers and listeners to check it out. It’s always valuable to gain this knowledge and information. We also have aftershock I believe aftershock is also available on Amazon and it’s available wherever you are. And I’m highly recommending everybody to buy a copy and start reading end to end chapter one to the last chapter. Producer. I know we’re short on time, but I’d love to speak with you for a longer time. We know you have other things to do. Tell us where people can find you look up your work, look up Jill’s work and hopefully get in touch with you. The best way to get in touch with the two of us is through the website, www. Global mega trends calm. But I’m also reachable through www dot lazur l a s a dash insight calm. Okay, so two websites global Mega trends.com and Lhasa insights.com. And I’ll know as insight one plus insight.com. I’ll post links to those two sites in the description of this video. Any last thoughts on where we’re headed in the next five to 10 years generally, as we come out of this shock that COVID-19 has created on the world it’s definitely shocked us What do you anticipate in the next five to 10 years? Well, for sure it will not be the same. This has been a watershed moment and a watershed moment is when what happened before and what happens now is different. There’s one moment and everything changes. What’s going to be interesting is to think about what will stay the same and what will change. So we think travel will change we think so many people are living at home or living at home with working from home now. And you know, they may not want to go back to work. And we may find that this is a better way to do it. And what do people do already, the investment funds that work in the area of real estate, at least in the UK have stopped trading for now until they can figure out what’s happening. I think that’s going to be a shake up. Because I think office space is going to be it you know, and especially in big city centers, like London is going to diminish a great deal. And travel is going to change. You know, I mean, look, I don’t know where you’re based us. I’m in Toronto, Toronto, Canada, Toronto, sorry, I Oh, no, see me. So Toronto, so you’re not that far in time away. But we can have this discussion. And, you know, 20 years ago, that would have been quite difficult. It was possible, but it would have been very difficult and very expensive. It changes the way we work, the way we work and what we work on is going to change. I know a lot of people are really frightened. And of course, it’s frightening that people you know, are going to die. I can’t tell you what that’s like, and you have kids, and I have children and grandchildren. And it scares me silly. But I do think that what’s going to come is going to be very interesting and can actually be something quite good if we make it that way. Thank you, Patricia. I really like how you ended it tomorrow. Well, we know it will be different, but let’s hope it’s good. It’s best for us or friends or families and humanity in general. Keep inspiring people and keep helping us understand where we’re headed. Thank you so much for your time. I really do appreciate it and wish you all the best. Okay, thank you. Hey, friend, this is Ian Khan. If you like what you saw on my video, then please subscribe to my YouTube channel and be inspired every single day with innovative content that keeps you fresh, updated and ready for the future. For more information. Also visit my website at Ian khan.com
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by Ian Khan | Feb 10, 2021 | Ian Khan Blog, Ian Khan's Blog, Podcast
Jeff Bauer, Healthcare Futurist, in conversation with Futurist Ian Khan
In this episode, i speak with globally recognized Futurist Jeff Bauer, also a co-contributor to the recent book “After Shock”.
Bio
Jeff Bauer has built a distinguished career by applying principles of creativity to health care and art. Recipient of many national awards, he is widely recognized as a teacher, researcher, writer, and speaker on ways to improve the medical marketplace.
He is now focused on speaking about strategies for real health reform and producing conceptual paintings that transform purposeful phrases into colorful kaleidoscopic images—making the verbal visual. The common denominator of his provocative work in both areas is words.
Learn more about Jeff at https://jeffbauerwords.com/
About After Shock
The world’s foremost futurists reflect on 50 years of Future Shock—and look ahead to the next 50
Contributors include:
Alan Kay
Aaron Frank
Adrienne Mayor
Alexander Mankowsky
Alexandra Ivanovitch
Alisha Bhagat
Amy Zalman
Anders Sorman-Nilsson
Andra Keay
Andrew Curry
Andy Hines
Anita Sengupta
Anne Lise Kjaer
Aris Persidis
Aubrey de Grey
Barry O’Reilly
Barry Vacker
Bill Davidow
Bill Diamond
Bryan Alexander
Byron Reese
Carlos Osorio
Carver Mead
Cat Tully
Cindy Frewen
Clem Bezold
Daniel Burrus
Daniel Levine
David Brin
David Guston
David Krakauer
David J. Staley
David Weinberger
Deb Westphal
Diane M. Francis
Donna Dupont
Eleanor “Nell” Watson
Eric Daimler
Erica Bol
Erik Qualman
Fotis Sotiropoulos
George Gilder
Grady Booch
Gray Scott
Hannes Sjoblad
Harish Natarajan
Hazel Henderson
Helen Messier
Ian Khan
Ignacio Pena
Jack Uldrich
James Canton
Jane McGonigal
Jason Jackson
Jason Schenker
Jay Gambetta
Jeff Eisenach
Jeffrey C. Bauer
Jerome Glenn
Jerry Fishenden
Joe Dispenza
Joe Tankersley
Joel Garreau
John L. Petersen
John M. Smart
John Sack
John Sanei
John Schroeter
Jonathan Venn
José Morey
Kaitlyn Sadtler
Kirk Borne
Klee Irwin
Kris Østergaard
Lisa Bodell
Maciej Kranz
Martin Guigui
Martin Rees
Maggie Greyson
Michael Tomczyk
Michel Laberge
Mick Ebeling
Moon Ribas
Naveen Jain
Neil Jacobstein
Newt Gingrich
Patricia Lustig & Gill Ringland
Paul Saffo
Paul Stimers
Po Bronson & Arvind Gupta
Ray Kurzweil
Rebecca Costa
Richard Browning
Richard Slaughter
Richard Watson
Richard Yonck
Rodrigo Nieto Gómez
Rohit Bhargava
Ross Dawson
Ruth Miller
Sanjiv Chopra & Pankaj K Vij
Sohail Inayatullah
Sridhar Mahadevan
Stan Rosen
Stephanie Mehta
Steve Waite
Tanya Accone
Terrence (Terry) Sejnowski
Teun Koetsier
Theodore Jay Gordon
Thomas Frey
Timothy Chou
Vikram Mansharamani
Wolfgang Fengler
Zoltan Istvan
Full Transcript : Hi friends this is Ian Khan and you’re listening to the Ian Khan show today is a special aftershock episode, which means I’m speaking with a co contributor to the recent book aftershot. Today I’m speaking with Jeff Bower PhD, who’s an internationally recognized health futurist and medical economist. He’s the author of nearly 300 publications on the medical marketplace. Dr. Bauer is a frequent keynote speaker all across the world, and he’s really well known around the world. Dr. Barr was a Ford Foundation, independent scholar, Fulbright scholar and Kellogg Foundation national fellow, and he’s based out of the US Let’s speak with Jeff. Welcome to the Ian Khan show. This is your host Ian Khan. And today I have an aftershock special episode with me is renowned futurist and a legend Jeff bower. Now, Jeff Bauer is a PhD, he’s a healthcare futurist. He’s been telling us about the future for almost five decades plus, so I’ve been looking forward to this conversation for many, many weeks. Jeff, welcome to the show.
How are you? I am fine in spite of the bigger picture circumstances and delighted to be here. It’s future view and my crystal ball is a delight. But being able to discuss it is and I really appreciate you pulling me into your community have a chance to look ahead. So thank you, first of all, Jeff for being part of Aftershock. This is the glue that binds us together and I’m so grateful to john Schroeder for going out there reaching out to all these amazing people putting them all together and talking about Toffler, someone, Alvin Toffler wrote Future Shock 50 years ago. And for those of my viewers and our audiences are listening on the podcast as well. You’ve been telling us over 50 years what’s going to happen and you’ve been in industry and what you’ve been in you were there at tougher his time. In fact, Toffler wrote the book after you joined the industry, isn’t that right? Yes, that is correct. And not only that, at the time, I joined the industry and started doing graduate studies in the economics of health care. My mentor was a close friend of Alvin Toffler is a very, very well known economist and peace activist named Kenneth boulding. So I had a bit of an inside scoop, you go through all of Future Shock as I did, to write my chapter, which is a delight. In retrospect, I saw many references to Kenneth moldings work. And I remember Kenneth with whom I spent a lot of time when I was in graduate school, talking about his association with Dennis and his wife. So yeah, I was there. But not only is the casual observer felt that that was a fly on the wall and able to figure out because the the mindset, Jeff, you’ve been an influence and a contributor to industry for five decades, and the amount of work you’ve put out there to your thought leadership through your initiative is mind boggling. Today, I think we just want to scratch the surface, because it’s going to take us a lot of time otherwise, starting right from aftershot. your essay with an aftershock. And you Let’s dive deep into it. Sure. In your article, you mentioned that Toffler didn’t get things right. And we’re not here talking just about Topher, we’ll start off with that, but talk about what’s happening in the world right now as well. So you mentioned that Telford didn’t get it right. He had many things that he had predicted, for example, we would be growing the organs in the lab in the mid 80s. So there’s many things that he tried to predict, but they didn’t go right. But tell us about that era, the early 80s, the late 70s, that what was the world like, at that time? Well, my era was really starting in the late 60s, when I took my first job in healthcare, I became a clinical photographer in a 300 bed Cancer Hospital in the late 60s. So there was General excitement about science. In fact, as a high school student in the early 60s, I was able to receive a National Science Foundation study grant, because the American government was so concerned about the Cold War and being able to beat the Russians to the moon and win the very scientific thing. So the 60s is really the era when I grew up. So the answer to your question is was a real excitement about what we could do with science, science fairs, getting jobs in engineering suddenly really rose to the top. So there was a field that science could solve a lot of problems, the field that I ultimately adopted coming to it from research, meteorology, atmospheric physics, namely economics was in a transformation from pretty much the economists being a good thinker who followed logic to the economists being a numbers based guy or gal that did heavy quantitative work. So why would stress i think is my best summary of that 70s period coming out of the 60s is a real focus on quantitative analysis. Not that I agree with it. I think I’ve made it clear my chapter I think the balance is important. In fact, I love about the work you’re doing when I read up on you is looking at the ways to merge all this and the book and the other contributors. I think, in large part do that too. But in order lesson sorry for being wordy. It was real belief that we could add objective analysis numerical quantitative stuff to our good thought processes and begin to design policies that can make a difference. Thank you Now since those days since the 70s, and I was quite young ladies, as you can probably guess, we had no technology as we have today. We didn’t have cell phones, we didn’t have personal computers, like, really, we were literally in an age of fax machines, telex machines, I would say color televisions were a great thing to have, it would probably have been a big thing, at least where I was growing up and coming out what was it to be able to do foresight work to look into the future of the world. And when Toffler as an example, started predicting things, and he came up with a third wave, Future Shock a bunch of what what was surrounding you thinkers like Toffler, what was it that you guys are feeding off to help shape conversations about tomorrow? Well, one big difference between the the 70s when I did my graduate work, and today was I think, the openness of the intellectual community, intellectuals have not divided into conservatives or liberals, there was a real, a real excitement about just being able to share ideas. So symposia were very, very common, the idea of just bringing together collective people to think with no expectation that there would necessarily be a common denominator wasn’t like a liberal think tank and a conservative think tank, it was a think tank, and people were really excited about trying to envision things together. And I think that’s one of the biggest differences. Also, you mentioned, the technologies were absent, you bet I did most of the work for my PhD dissertation and study of how doctors set their fees with a slide rule. The University of Colorado where I did the work, I had a computer center with graduate students, if they wanted to use that had to do their own punch cards, haul them into the computer center between roughly midnight and six in the morning when none of the PhD scientists wanted to be there. So it was not a technology absent era. But we had a different technology, I and most of the other people doing quantitative work at that time knew how to use a spreadsheet, we did an awful lot with calculators where he just punched in, I remember my in graduate school buying my first Hewlett Packard electronic calculator, it would do nothing but add, multiply, divide and subtract. It costs $300, which was probably a semesters tuition, and all it would do is add multiply, so I didn’t have to divide and subtract. So it’s funny, I’ve never quite had someone posed the question in that way. But we didn’t have the technologies. We really had exciting intellectual discussions, I fear that we’ve gotten to the point now where we have the technologies and don’t spend much time thinking so somewhere between technology rise and the thinking we had to do, we’ve lost something, even though we’ve gained incredible powers. Several of the other authors and aftershock show artificial intelligence, not just in healthcare in a variety of fields, you show that in your own work to allows us to do a lot of different things. But I think what I really lament is the lack of shared intellectual discourse with an open mind and completely understand that when I was growing up, having a scientific calculator was amazing. It was just amazing. And it would do so many different things. I remember when I was in my, I think my sixth grade or my fifth grade, that was my first exposure to the computer. And it was a BBC Micro in our computer lab. And it had that small black and white monitor. And what we do on it is play Pac Man to start off with that was it that was Pac Man was my introduction to computers with the big floppy disks, of course, yeah. So when I look at, and I reflect upon, you know, the current era and how you compare it, because majority of us think about our past all the time, right? I’m one of those people 50% of my thinking is about Okay, how are things before so when I start thinking about the past, and then I look at all the things we have access to today, I’m just so grateful for the world and technology and what has culminated until now, because now we can reach millions of people in one second and talking about COVID-19. Look at the amount of information. You could do a PhD in COVID-19 sitting at home if I just sat there and studied everything. So just to make a point. I think we’ve I have seen this in the last 2030 years. And it’s so amazing and humbling to be living in an era where we have access to creating an impact. I want to ask you about COVID-19. We’re living through the era of COVID-19. You’re a healthcare futurist. Let’s talk about where we are today. Like Did you think this was a possibility a few years ago or decades ago? What were your kind of thoughts about something like this happening? Well, I’ve always believed that we were not taking epidemic science seriously enough. It’s interesting. I joined the faculty of the University of Colorado medical school in 1973. Under a federal grant, this was the first time the government was making money available to medical schools to hire economists. And very quickly I discovered the dean and other significant people who control the curriculum at the medical school didn’t want economists thought so inculcated into physicians minds. physicians were supposed to think about disease, not about the dollars and cents of treatment. So I was very quickly diverted to teaching epidemiology and all I had almost no training in epidemiology. I was qualified quantitative scientists, I started teaching the science of transmission of disease. That’s incredible epidemics were very significant. And I’ve taught the classes I feel somewhat conversant in the basic vocabulary. But I have felt for years, we were underprepared for an epidemic, I could not have predicted that it would be COVID-19. One of the real exciting and negative scary way of epidemiologic science is how much just comes from genetic permutation. But I’ve been telling people, even in my writings, as recently as the last month or two, before the month or two before COVID-19 became very clear, to expect a surprise, I had no idea what it would be between expect a big surprise, something was lurking on the horizon. And I really believe that the biggest one in the five to 10 year horizon is global climate change. But to have an epidemic come up like this should not surprise us in the slightest. That’s why I’m so dismayed at our lack of preparation, we should have been ready for this. Because quite frankly, I think anyone who understands epidemiological science and the history of disease for 1000s of years about which there’s an extended record should not be surprised by COVID-19. It is no surprise at all, what’s disgusting factors, we are prepared. One of the interesting things, Jeff, and you are so much more well learned than I am. And I’m just going to try and share my perspective here as speaking with people from Europe over the last few weeks, somebody from Sweden, somebody from Copenhagen, and different people are dealing with COVID-19 in a different way different governments are dealing with it a different way. I don’t know what your views are on whether the lack of preparedness is more political reasons. Because of you know, who’s in power? What are they doing? Or is it because the intellectual class the people who drive the thinkers, they’ve stopped thinking, right? I mean, I refuse to see that it’s only just the government that’s not doing enough. I mean, we’re supposed to do a lot more we’re supposed to have these conversations and in within think tanks and talk about what we can do. So in Europe as an example, the government’s response is completely different. Government has stepped back, politicians have stepped back and they’ve put domain experts up front, and they’re dictating the terms and conditions of how lockdowns will happen. What will happen, what are we doing different? or What should we do different to avoid something like this impacting us so much in the future? Well, I personally believe that the tragedy is the anti scientific bias that’s developed in the United States. I’m very familiar with France, I’ve lived there for several years and and stay in close touch with France watch French news on TV and alike. So I can compare the US and France and France has never had anything close to the level that we’ve had. It is anti scientific thing. And that’s been a real political problem in the United States, the anti vaxxers people that want the freedom to decide whether they can have large meetings, face to face when it’s clearly not wise, not recommended by the medical community. So I agree 100%, clapping silently when you made your comment about we should be having these think tanks in these discussions. And I’ve attended many of those over the years in my role as a health data scientist, but they were largely funded by the federal government. In fact, the CDC, if I went back and thought of that, several meetings where I was that sort of statistician and resident in the 90s, or even into the first year or two of the george bush administration, when this began to turn around, they were government funded, but because the government funding was seen as a challenge to certain religious beliefs, or people would believe the cockamamie stories about mercury poisoning and vaccines that are being given to kids, we say beginning with Bush, and I was actually interviewed by the Bush administration to be a fairly significant person in Health and Human Services at the time. But when when I pointed out that I absolutely had no truck for these anti science people. They told me, sorry, your your interview is done, we’re not going to use you. We have to listen to the non scientists look where we are today. So I guess I’m my answer to your question is that, yes, I really lament the lack of these. But I think that the best source of the discussions in the past has been the government. I’m not a regulator type at all. I think that the government needs to be supporting that. And one of the reasons we’re so unprepared in the United States today is the people that the positions would be responsible for having had these debates and turning into policy recommendations at the White House are empty. We simply have the powers that be in the Trump administration, making sure that those people weren’t there to do that structure set up. It’s simply the cave into political forces in this country is causing us to pay a tragic price. I’m thinking just thinking out loud. You know, perhaps one of the answers to this could be just a lot of transparency, I mean, transparency of data, so a lot of data and regenerating so much knowledge and data right now, which is really factual that, hey, here’s all the data. This is what this means. And this is what it can do. Not a politician, I’m just presenting data. And you know, when we have transparency, go to different groups of people, maybe that’s a way to influence them. And to help them make a better decision on it right is that way to perhaps go further, I couldn’t disagree. That’d be a hypocrite if I did anything other than talk about data. But funny, I’m sort of a renegade within the data science field, because I’m one of the few people that’s authored medical school statistics books, for example, talking about the quality of data. And then I’ve taken on editors of major medical journals for walk overly overseeing these remarkably solid scientific studies. But the numbers weren’t accurate measurements of what they thought they were looking at. So I couldn’t be a stronger supporter of the database approaches that you’re talking about. But the accuracy of the data is terribly important. And we have almost no accurate data about COVID-19. Right now, as you pointed out, in your eloquent question, a moment ago, it caught us by surprise, the people would have been responsible for quickly ramping up the test. I didn’t do it for developing the databases. Nobody was in that office because it was empty for political reasons. And so we’re paying an enormous price. But I want good data. But I won’t be able to answer questions about what to do about COVID. Till we know how many different variations of it there are the interaction between, say one or two variations of the virus with our own individual health statuses with our own genetics. One of the other authors in aftershock has a great article about the need for it of data approaches. And we need to make sure that we’ve got good data and we don’t right now. So even if I Well, I guess one of the reasons I’ve chosen not to become a COVID expert right now, because I’m sure I could, you know, book, lots of interviews would be that I don’t have good numbers to stand on. And we need that desperately. Absolutely. Jeff, I know, we don’t have a lot of time with you today. But I really do want to appreciate all the time you’re spending with us. I want to ask you about the future. I want to ask you about the future, not just healthcare but of human being. Get my crystal ball here, okay, us as people, there you go. You got to get the ball up. Are we headed when it comes to health care when it comes to living a longer life? Many people predict that in the next 15 to 20 years, maybe we’ll have these nanobots and humanity will read an escape velocity. And we can extend our lifetimes by 20 3050 100 years help us understand where we’re headed in the next 10 to 15 years. I think I answered that question today differently than I would have answered it three months ago, given the COVID virus we are going to be so drapped put together resources for carrying on with medical research that I would have given you a fairly optimistic view about the roles of technologies. Right now. I’m worried about the survival of enough physicians and advanced practice nurses and clinical pharmacists and other people to deliver health care. I’m worried about the survival of research communities, not just the scientists themselves, some will die from COVID. But but they won’t have the money and will have terrible political fights. So three months ago, I would have told you Yeah, I’m pretty optimistic that the genetic revolution will prevail. I’m absolutely And sadly, there’s no excitement. As I say, when I look at my crystal ball, I see chaos. I have an article circulating right now hopefully to get on the editorial pages of one of the big newspapers. But it really sadly points to a rather chaotic situation. And that means I would be violating my own principles. If I were to tell you what happened, because I don’t have a slightest idea. Chaos means that which is operating with no overall direction, no preordained plan. And so there’s a cynicism, there’s no delight in telling you that. But if I were to tell you, here’s what I think is going to happen 10 to 15 years from now, I would be making something up as opposed to giving you a viable analysis, based on good data of real trends. I’m very excited about our new medical sciences, if capabilities we’ve never had before, but we’re being set back so tragically by what’s going on right now. And with respect to hopefully on the positive side, let’s say we overcome this challenge. And somehow in the next two to five years, I really believe COVID-19 is going to have a long term impact. It’s not going to go away when the vaccine is out, you know, I would say maybe even five years until we put it in our distant memory to say, okay, that happened one day, let’s say post five years timeframe and we’re back to being amazing and fundings are there. Everything’s people are back on research. What are some of the things that you would want to see to really take shape? Is it drug discovery? Is it the cure for cancer? Is it you know, a cure for pandemics? What are some of your favorite things that you would want acceleration to happen in? Well, I think one of the biggest impediments for the kind of desirable future You and I both would love to see is the way we organize the personnel in our healthcare delivery system. It is so 20th century to assume that medical care is provided when a patient is in office with the door closed seeing a doctor first of all, my passion for the last several years has been studying the role of the advanced practitioners, the nurse practitioners, certified nurse midwives, clinical pharmacist, PhD. level or doctoral level physical therapist, these people are at least as good I just published a book called not what the doctor ordered the third edition of it. I’ve got over 300 peer reviewed journal articles in there showing that the quality of the non physician has risen to be as good as the physician. So I’m not anti physician, I’d spent 18 years of my life proudly as a professor to medical schools and I’m very proud of one of my kids. It’s a physician, I love American medicine, but to argue that we should return to a system that’s controlled by doctors I simply can’t do so an answer to your question. I would love to see us respect all of the people who are qualified to see patients directly and start building teams that respect those skills. Also telemedicine. It’s funny I and very dear friend and colleague named Mark ringel, and a few other people have been pushing telemedicine for well over 20 years, and all of a sudden, people are discovering it work well. Our colleagues in the military and academic centers with people that have dealt in rural health have known for 20 years of telemedicine works but the powers that be haven’t wanted to do it because it got in their way. So I think we need to come back with just as much an acceptance of telemedicine the virtual relationship. In other words, you and I, instead of talking about future can be talking about my heart condition, just no need for us to be having this face to face. And it doesn’t need to be between just a doctor and a patient. I also think we need to change the healthcare delivery system. I I think that health insurance is a terrible way to build on the future of healthcare, because health insurance is controlled by the people that have financial interest. So I’m taking a big position as a real gadfly, trying to get the insurance companies think about quitting this waste of all the resources we put into processing payment and start default delivering care directly. So instead of figuring out ways to make insurance more affordable, I’d like to start society’s thinking about ways to make healthcare more, more affordable, so that we take the most common diseases, the diabetes, the mental health conditions, and and start providing those in the community rather than giving you insurance to people that may not be capable of doing it in a good way. And it’s fascinating. I know that you’re in Canada, and I’m not the first person to come up with that idea. Their current prime minister Home Health and Social Welfare guy, a guy named Mark Lalanne, back in the 70s started thinking, you know, Canada’s very progressive country. My grandpa was kidding. I love Canada, but Lalanne came up with the idea. Why don’t we just start, you know, let’s not talk about universal health insurance. Let’s talk about universal access. So let’s find the diseases the top five diseases that most Canadians or us Americans are dying from and provide care directly to them. And so I can ramble. I’ve got several more ideas, but I’ll put his let’s get creative and reinvent the healthcare delivery system. It’s sort of like the dilemma my Parisian friends are facing right now in notre DOM, you want to rebuild notre Dom to look like it didn’t 1300 or to meet the needs of a religious and cultural community for the 21st century. I’m clearly in the latter camp. And so rather than figure out how to rebuild what we had, let’s admit it had lots of flaws. And Notre Dame did burn to the ground, which is, after all, pretty big flaw and redesign. So not not restore, but redesign. And so I get real excited. And you notice my first couple of answers to your question, and a lot hats off to people like you and other contributors to aftershock who are doing the same thing. But I’d love to use this as an opportunity to think of doing things differently and better with the new tools that you so rightly posited as the questions foundation. Amazing, Jeff, thank you. I can’t thank you enough for your time. One final thing, tell our listeners and viewers where can they find more information about you follow your work, tell us about your book, just point us in the right direction. Couple of them the latest one is not what the doctor ordered. The one before that is upgrading leadership’s crystal ball, which is a lot about the things that you and I talked about. My website is a good place to start. And it’s Jeff Bower words je FF ba Yu er WORDS calm. It’s in beta. Right now I’m just revising my professional stances, I also pursue a dream to become a struggling artist. And so what I’m really trying to do as a futurist, by the way, is to merge my quantitative and scientific backgrounds with my artistic background, and actually had a Foundation grant from the Kellogg Foundation about 30 years ago, to learn to be an artist, and they gave me that as an assistant chancellor at an academic health center. So I’m trying to merge the worlds of art and that and Jeff, our words, calm is a good place to get started. And I love dialogue. I can learn a lot from people just, you know, engaging in discussions. It’s wonderful, you are doing this and again, I appreciate the other contributors to aftershock but Jeff power words calm, I’ll show you my new mission to create or to merge artistic thinking with scientific thinking and imagine new possibilities. And anyone that looks will see the title of my blog. In my my latest blog post on the website is called in search of green swans. We’re always looking for the rare event. The Black Swans, at least Black Swans exist. My new passion is to create green swans and then three to five years from now as you and I both believe I agree with you, by the way. Hopefully things are back to a semblance of normality that allows us to think constructively about the future. Let’s do some green swans. Amazing Jeff, thank you so much. Please, folks, check out Jeff’s work, not what the doctor ordered third edition updating leadership’s crystal ball to many amazing works by Jeff also His website def Bower words.com. Jeff, thank you so much. We wish you a safe time and safe passage to win 19 and this era that surrounded us right now, but please keep writing keep inspiring us. Tell us about what’s happening because people are listening. We’re listening to you, and hopefully we’re going to catch up real to him. Thank you so much. I look forward to coming up to Toronto and doing that face to face when it’s safe. You stay. Absolutely, it’d be my pleasure. Thank you so much. Thank you. Hey, friend, this is Ian Khan. If you like what you saw on my video, then please subscribe to my YouTube channel and be inspired every single day with innovative content that keeps you fresh, updated and ready for the future. For more information. Also, visit my website at Ian khan.com
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